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 Los
Mercados mundiales
Tipos
de alimentos
Aceites
mundiales
Formación
del precio del girasol
Balance
Cosechas
del hemisferio Norte
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|
 LOS
MERCADOS MUNDIALES
El
aceite de girasol es responsable por alrededor del 80
% del precio del grano de girasol , entre el 65 y 75 %
del grano de girasol producido en la Argentina se exporta
mayoritariamente como aceite crudo a granel y pellet de
girasol y en menor proporcion como grano o como aceite
refinado envasado.
Por lo tanto para entender la dinamica de mercados y precios
de semilla de girasol hay que entender a los mercados
de aceite mundiales ( que determinaran el precio base)
y a la insercion del aceite de girasol dentro de esos
mercados (que determinara la prima que el aceite de girasol
consiga sobre los mercados base).
Para entender
los fundamentos del mercado de aceites mundiales es necesario
trabajar con los estudios demograficos que justificaran
la demanda mundial y con el balance de oferta y demanda
mundial de aceites.
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Población:
6.000 mill (20 kg/capita)
Crecimiento
Poblacional: 1,5%
anual
Incremento
Consumo Aceite y Grasas: 1,5%
per capita/anual
Aumento
Consumo: 3%
anual
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Tipos
de Alimentos (mill. tons.)
| |
Prod.
|
Comercio
|
Uso
principal
|
|
Granos
Consumo Humano
|
1000
|
|
|
| |
Trigo
|
600
|
100
|
Humano
|
| |
Arroz
|
400
|
25
|
Humano
- Oriente
|
|
Granos
Forraje
|
950
|
|
|
|
|
Maíz
|
600
|
70
|
Energía
Animal
|
|
|
Otros
|
350
|
|
|
|
Oleaginosos
|
320
|
125
|
|
|
|
Soja
|
170
|
90
|
Prot.
Animal - Aceite
|
|
|
Colza
|
37
|
7
|
Aceite
- Prot. Animal
|
|
|
Girasol
|
22
|
6
|
Aceite
- Prot. Animal
|
|
Palma
|
13
|
17
|
|
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Tipos
de Alimentos
|
Granos
consumo humano en millones de toneladas
|
|
|
Mundo
|
Exp
|
Arg
|
Exp
|
|
Trigo
|
580
|
100
|
18
|
12
|
|
Maíz
|
590
|
70
|
13
|
7
|
|
Arroz
|
400
|
25
|
0.5
|
0.2
|
|
Soja
|
170
|
120
|
28
|
26
|
|
Colza
|
37
|
5
|
0
|
0
|
|
Girasol
|
22
|
7
|
3.1
|
2.2
|
|
Palma
|
23
|
17
|
0
|
0
|
| |
2300
|
350
|
69
|
50
|
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|
Aceites
Mundiales (mill. tons.)
|
|
Soja
|
Palma
|
Colza
|
Girasol
|
Algodón
|
Mani
|
|
Molienda
|
155
|
-
|
36
|
21
|
27
|
13
|
|
Prod.
Aceite
|
28
|
24
|
14
|
8
|
4
|
5
|
|
Foco
|
Prot
|
Largo
Plazo
|
Aceite
|
Aceite
|
Fibra
|
Confit
|
|
Comerc.
|
8,5
|
17,0
|
1,5
|
1,4
|
|
|
|
%
Arg
|
39%
|
|
|
50%
|
|
|
|
Stocks
|
3,0
|
3,5
|
1,1
|
0,8
|
0,3
|
0,4
|
| |
Otros
|
Grasas
|
Total
|
|
|
Molienda
|
-
|
-
|
270
|
|
Prod.
Aceite
|
14
|
23
|
120
|
|
Foco
|
Subprod
|
Carne
|
|
|
Comerc.
|
6,2
|
3,4
|
39,0
|
|
%
Arg
|
|
|
15,0
|
|
Stocks
|
1,9
|
2,0
|
13,0
|
|
Otros
Veget
|
|
Grasas
|
|
Maiz
|
´2/1
|
|
Manteca
|
6
|
|
Oliva
|
´3/1
|
|
Chancho
|
7
|
|
Palmkemel
|
´3/1.6
|
|
Pescado
|
1,3
|
|
Coco
|
´3/2.1
|
|
Vaca
|
´8/2.2
|
|
Lino
|
0,8
|
|
|
23
|
|
Cartamo
|
0,5
|
|
|
|
| |
14
|
|
|
|
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Responsables
de la formación del precio del grano de Girasol
Tomando
el periodo 1997 / 2001
El
precio del girasol subio de 200 a 300 para bajar a 120
y subir a 190 $
El
80 % de esa variabilidad explicada por variación
en el precio del aceite (800/270)
El
12 % por variaciones del precio del pellet (60/100)
El
8 % por variaciones en el margen de molienda (13/27)
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Balance
Mundial de Aceite de Girasol
|
Octubre
/ Septiembre
|
|
|
97
/98
|
98
/ 99
|
99
/00
|
00
/ 01 E
|
01
/02 P
|
|
Stocks
Iniciales
|
1,0
|
0,9
|
1,0
|
1,1
|
0,8
|
|
Producción
|
8,4
|
9,3
|
9,6
|
8,9
|
8,5
|
|
Importaciones
|
3,1
|
3,0
|
2,7
|
2,4
|
2,5
|
|
Exportaciones
|
3,0
|
3,0
|
2,7
|
2,4
|
2,4
|
|
Consumo
|
8,6
|
9,2
|
9,4
|
9,2
|
8,7
|
|
Stocks
Finales
|
0,9
|
1,0
|
1,1
|
0,8
|
0,7
|
|
Stocks/consumo
|
10,2
|
10,3
|
12,0
|
9,2
|
8,4
|
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Escenario
de cosechas del Hemisferio Norte
Nuevamente
se esperan bajas cosechas en Europa Occidental.
Se esta observando un incremento de area en Europa Oriental,
especialmente en Rusia y Ucrania. Se espera por esta razon,
que a partir de Octubre, el mercado mundial se muestre
menos dependiente de la produccion de girasol argentina.
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